31-12-2013

NBA:
Portland Trail Blazers +6 ($2500)

30-12-2013 Recap

NBA: 1-1-0 -$250

YTD (NBA): 16-22-0 -$1255
YTD (NFL): 8-3-1 +$880
Net TOTAL: -$325

J.

30-12-2013

NBA:

Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 ($2500)

DAL/MIN Under 215.5 ($2500)

J.

29-12-2013 NBA Recap

This is not even funny anymore. Fourth night in a row when the game I bet the under on goes into OT for an over cover...Still hoping for a night when it all turns around.

NBA: 0-3-0 -$300

YTD (NBA): 15-21-0 -$955
YTD (NFL): 8-3-1 +$880
Net TOTAL: -$75

J.

29-12-2013 NBA Picks

Few games on board tonight, but I still managed to come up with some decent plays. Hopefully you all cashed my NFL picks already.

NBA:
Atlanta Hawks +3 ($100)
GSW/CLE Under 206.5 ($100)
SAC/SAS Under 211 ($100)

Good luck & enjoy the beautiful game of basketball!

J.

29-12-2013 NFL Recap

And off we go with some nice early NFL wins.

NFL: 6-2-0 +$680

YTD (NBA): 15-18-0 -$655
YTD (NFL): 8-3-1 +$880
Net TOTAL: +$255

J.

29-12-2013 NFL Picks

It's the NFL day again. Here are my NFL selections for the day.

NFL: 
Carolina Panthers -6 ($200)
Cincinnati Bengals -7 ($200)
Indianapolis Colts -10 ($200)
New York Jets +6.5 ($200)
Detroit Lions +3 ($200)
New York Giants -3 ($200)
Cleveland Browns +7 ($200)
Houston Texans +7 ($200)

NBA picks will follow later on.

J.

28-12-2013 Recap

Terrible, just terrible...lost 3 big bets by 2, 2 and 1 point.

NBA: 0-6-0 -$1300 

YTD (NBA): 15-18-0 -$655
YTD (NFL): 2-1-1 +$200
Net TOTAL: -$455

Will get it all back tomorrow night, though.

J.

28-12-2013 Picks

Big card today, and I managed to find a decent value as well among the upcoming games. Had been extremely unlucky for past few days, but no worries hopefully luck will turn its right side tonight.

NBA:
Denver Nuggets +3 ($250)
New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 ($250)
Boston Celtics -4 ($250)
BKN/IND Under 194.5 ($250)
CHA/ATL Under 193 ($150)
MIN/MIL Under 203.5 ($150)

Cheers!

J.

27-12-2013 Recap

UNBELIEVABLE! I still can't believe that MIA/SAC over beat in OT. How on earth did that game just went over? This is getting absolutely ridiculous. Instead of winning $300+, I ended up winning $25 ridiculous dollars. NBA at its finest. Have no words for this, it just should had been a 4-1 night.

NBA: 3-2-0 +$25

YTD (NBA): 15-12-0 +$645
YTD (NFL): 2-1-1 +$200
Net TOTAL: +$845

J.

27-12-2013 Picks

Hey, everyone! 9 games on a board today, and I was able to find some picks with a great value as well. Let's hope for better luck tonight.

NBA:
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 ($100)
New York Knicks +2.5 ($100)
OKC/CHA Under 199.5 ($150)
MIA/SAC Under 210.5 ($150)

Parlay (@2.00):
Golden State Warriors ML
Brooklyn Nets ML
($50)

Good luck!

J.

26-12-2013 Recap

Two ridiculously unlucky overtime loses, which should have been (and was until OT) an easy cover. You really can't account for OT, but that's the NBA. Really lucky were the ones who took over, those games never were going over in regulation. Anyway, got away with a decent profit for the night.

NBA: 3-2-0 +$235

YTD (NBA): 12-10-0 +$620
YTD (NFL): 2-1-1 +$200
Net TOTAL: +$820

J.

26-12-2013

Get ready to cash big tonight!

NBA:
Cleveland Cavaliers +3 ($150)
San Antonio Spurs -2.5 ($350)
Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 ($150) 
ATL/CLE Under 205 ($200)
LAC/POR Under 213 ($150)

Good luck!

J.

25-12-2013 Recap

Oh, how about that half-point loss on HOU/SAS total? Have to take not so good days as well. Will get back stronger tomorrow.

NBA: 2-3-0 -$180

YTD (NBA): 9-8-0 +$385
YTD (NFL): 2-1-1 +$200
Net Total: +$585

Sorry for the loss,

J.

25-12-2013 Christmas Day Picks

Hey, readers! I hope that you are enjoying holidays with your family and loved ones. Here are my selections for this lovely day. I hope that I'll manage to make this day even more joyful! Cheers!

NBA:
CHI/BKN Over 187 ($150)
OKC/NY Under 202 ($150)
Chicago Bulls +3 ($150)
MIA/LAL Under 207.5 ($150)
HOU/SAS Over 209.5 ($150)

Ho, ho, ho!

J.

Tweaks and improvements for good...

Realised that I'll have some free time until Christmas dinner, so I'll use it wisely. I came up with a new experimental concept and will add some metrics to my model, looking at Hollinger's 'Player Efficiency Rating' form totally different perspective, it should improve the accuracy of totals prediction. I'll back-test it and see what comes out of it, so that I can put it in use by the time of Christmas Day showdown (ha..ha..). Also, might cook an article or two along with the Christmas dinner preparation.

Regards,

J.

23-12-2013 Recap

Really rough night. Totals are killing me, overs are hitting beyond every reason. Overs went 8-3 tonight, but it has been like that lately. I'm not making any adjustments to my model, though, because this is clearly an anomaly and will average out in near future. Nonetheless, managed to pull out a small profit for the night. Hope you made something extra for holidays as well.

NBA: 4-4-0 +$140

YTD (NBA): 7-5-0 +$565 
YTD (NFL): 2-1-1 +$200
Net TOTAL: +$765

Have a well deserved break for a day and happy holidays!

Merry Christmas!

J.

23-12-2013 Picks

Today we have quite a card with many options, but I have prepared some freshly baked picks after some serious number crunching and modelling. Here are my plays tonight.

NBA:
New Orleans Pelicans -1 ($350) 
Indiana Pacers -6 ($300)
Toronto Raptors +11.5 ($250)
Golden State Warriors +1.5 ($250)
Phoenix Suns -7.5 ($200)
DAL/HOU Under 212 ($200) 
ATL/MIA Under 207.5 ($200)
MIL/CHA Under 186.5 ($200)

Good luck and have a great night!

J.

22-12-2013 Recap

Very decent night betting-wise. Everything was set up for a sweep in NBA, TOR/OKC game total was 118 at the half-time, needed only 88 points in the second, but an awful scoring collapse by both teams happened. However, everything else went pretty much as planned. 

NBA: 3-1-0 +$425

NFL: 2-1-1 +$200

TOTAL: 5-2-0 +$625

YTD (NBA): 3-1-0 +$425

YTD (NFL): 2-1-1 +$200

*I'm going to track the NFL picks separately, because my main focus is still on the NBA, I pick NFL for fun and extra weekend action.

22-12-2013 Picks

NBA:
Toronto Raptors +10.5 ($250)
TOR/OKC Over 205 ($250)
MIN/LAC Over 208 ($250)
BOS/IND Under 189.5 ($250)

NFL:
Carolina Panthers -3.5 ($250)
DEN/HOU Over 53 ($250)
NO/CAR Under 44.5 ($250)
Tennessee Titans -4 ($250)

Throwing in some NFL action plays for the night as well. Enjoy!

J.

Biggest Performers In Each Team So Far

As the one third of the NBA regular season is already behind, it's team to take a look at the best performers in each team so far. My evaluation criterion will be the metric called - Wins Produced (implemented in sports analytics by D.Berri), which I also use in my analytics.

Atlanta Hawks: Kyle Korver 3.76 (WP)
Boston Celtics: Jordan Crawford 2.77 (WP)
Brooklyn Nets: Joe Johnson 2.1 (WP)
Charlotte Bobcats: Josh McRoberts 2.84 (WP)
Chicago Bulls: Joakim Noah 3.42 (WP)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Anderson Varejao 3.13 (WP)
Dallas Mavericks: Jose Calderon 2.93 (WP)
Denver Nuggets: Kenneth Faried 3.43 (WP)
Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond 6.26 (WP)
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry 4.53 (WP)
Houston Rockets: Dwight Howard 3.93 (WP)
Indiana Pacers: Paul George 4.84 (WP)
Los Angeles Clippers: Chirs Paul 7.1 (WP)
Los Angeles Lakers: Jordan Hill 3.78 (WP)
Memphis Grizzlies: Tonny Allen 2.67 (WP)
Miami Heat: LeBron James 7.3 (WP)
Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson 2.8 (WP)
Minnesota Timberwolves: Kevin Love 6.25 (WP)
New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Davis 3.59 (WP)
New York Knicks: Carmelo Anthony 3.26 (WP)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant 6.53 (WP)
Orlando Magic: Arron Afflalo 2.84 (WP)
Philadelphia 76ers: Spencer Hawes 1.8 (WP)
Phoenix Suns: Goran Dragic 3.13 (WP)
Portland Trail Blazers: Nicolas Batum 4.93 (WP) !!!
Sacramento Kings: Isaiah Thomas 2.4 (WP)
San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard 3.99 (WP)
Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry 3.44 (WP)
Utah Jazz: Derrick Favors 2.03 (WP)
Washington Wizards: Martel Webster 3.99 (WP)

This is how things look at the moments, to be honest nothing surprising. Maybe, the only little surprise for some people might be the fact that Nicolas Batum is currently leading WP rankings for Portland. Why surprise? Because we hear a lot more about L.Aldrige's and D.Lillard's performances (which no doubts had been amazing) and do not realise the effort that Batum brings to this team. The second actually is Wesley Matthews with 4.33 (WP). Matthews has been doing great on both ends of the floor, to my mind, he is one of the most under-rated players in the NBA at the moment.

I've highlighted green every name who has produced more than 4.5 wins this season. To no ones surprise LeBron is leading the pack with Chris Paul following closely. The thing is that one of these highlighted players is gonna be the next MVP this year, but the question remains - who's gonna be the one? Clearly, LeBron has established a steady course to this title, but the problem is that he has been named MVP 4 times already and such thing as "voter fatigue" can play against him this year. But who will it be then? Kevin Love is putting together an all-star season, but Wolves won't do well enough to help Love achieve this goal. Andre Drummond is a superior rebounder and he can put up some points, but that is basically it. Being in the Pistons team won't help either. Then we are left with Chirs Paul, Paul George and Kevin Durant. Paul George and Pacers have been outstanding this far into the season, but the problem is wether or not they are gonna maintain this level till the end of the season? Problem is that their bench is one of the worst benches in the league at the moment and Vogel is playing his starters a lot. Paul George would fit MVP at the moment, but I have some doubts that his performance will deteriorate a bit as the season goes one. Then there is Chris Paul, who has been doing everything right so far. He is greatly contributing to the overall team effort and putting up some outstanding individual numbers, but I don't think that Clippers have much chances to get far enough in playoffs for Paul to take the cake. Kevin Durant then? This would be my second option at the moment (in case LeBron doesn't get his prize due to the reason I mentioned above), KD does what is expected from MVP, for sure, and, in my opinion, OKC do have real chances of getting all the way to the finals this year and that should seal the spot for KD. But there is plenty of time left and things to change. Let's see how things unfold.

J.

Welcome!

Hello! You, definitely, don't know me and I don't know you, but that is not the matter here. I'll make my word better known in a short period of time. I've been a self-employed handicapper for over 3 years (I know it's not much, but the period can't be much longer, because I'm only 22 right now), making some remarkable profit from betting NBA and NFL on weekends and for fun. Past season records: 2012/13 - 221-143-13 (60.71%); 2011/12 - 267-166-9 (61.66%); 2010/11 - 165-89-5 (64.96%), returning around $350 000 profit in 3 years. I'm up to a good start this season as well, but I'll start counting my record for posted plays separately.

Long story short - if you want to earn some extra cash, jump in and let's ride this season together!

J.